The 2020 election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden was decided by under 50,000 votes in three crucial states – Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin.
Now polling suggests the upcoming November rematch between Biden and Trump could be even closer. Let’s examine the polling in seven crucial states that will likely decide who gets the keys to the White House for the next four years.
Georgia: 2020’s Closest State
In 2020, Democrats won the Peach State by 0.23% – with less than 12,000 votes of nearly five million cast separating Trump and Biden. Biden was the first Democratic Presidential candidate to win the state since Bill Clinton in 1992.
However, Biden faces an uphill battle to repeat his Georgia success for a second time. Current polling averages have Biden trailing Trump by 4.8% in the state.
Arizona: Can Biden Keep the Grand Canyon State Blue?
Arizona has traditionally been a Republican state – voting for Republican presidents in every election from 2000 to 2016. However, the state has recently seen a blue tidal wave; having elected two Democratic senators and a Democratic Governor, and narrowly voting for Biden over Trump in 2020.
Like with Georgia, however, Biden is struggling to replicate his previous success in the state. Polling averages have Trump leading Biden by a margin of 48.3%-44.1% in Arizona.
Wisconsin: A Tipping-Point State
In 2020, Wisconsin was the “tipping-point” state; narrowly awarding Biden the pivotal 10 electoral states he needed to take the White House.
The state, which Biden almost certainly needs to win to stay President, is effectively tied. According to RealClearPolling, just 0.1% currently separates him from Trump.
Pennsylvania: More Good News For Democrats?
After stunning pundits by electing Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016, Pennsylvania has more recently offered good news for Democrats. In 2022, the state elected John Fetterman as senator and saw a landslide Democratic victory in the race for governor.
This time, however, Democrats look to be in a tougher spot than they were in 2022. Trump currently leads Biden by 2.3% here – a noticeable difference but one that is well within the polling margin of error.
Michigan: Will The Blue Wall Hold?
The last of the three so-called “Blue Wall” states that Biden must win is Michigan. Famously, Hillary Clinton’s failure to win this state – alongside Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – allowed Trump to pull a surprise victory in 2016.
As with Wisconsin, the current polling has Biden and Trump effectively tied in Michigan – with just 0.3% separating the two.
Nevada: A State Shifting Right
Nevada has supported Democrats for President in every election since 2008. However, in recent years it has shifted towards Republicans. Nevada was one of just six states where Biden’s winning margin in 2020 was less than that of Clinton in 2016.
Now, polls suggest the state’s rightward move could be continuing. Currently, Trump leads by 5.3% in polling averages for the state. If Biden loses the Silver State, his path to winning the Presidency becomes a lot more difficult.
North Carolina: A Potential Democratic Gain?
North Carolina has only once voted for a Democratic president once this century (2008), but it has remained close for the last four elections.
With Biden struggling in a number of states he won in 2016, some Democrats have turned their attention to North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes. Biden has an uphill battle to win the state, however, currently trailing Trump by 5.3%.
Should We Trust Polls?
Polls famously got it wrong in 2016 – incorrectly predicting a Clinton victory over Donald Trump. However, they correctly predicted the 2020 outcome and were largely accurate in the last midterm elections.
In short, polls remain an imperfect science, but they’re still the most reliable measure we have for estimating current voter intentions.
The Path to 270
With the electoral college, rather than the popular vote, deciding who becomes President, both Trump and Biden will be looking closely at state-by-state polling to see who’s on track to win the Presidency.
While Trump seems to be outperforming his 2020 result, it’s unclear if this will be enough to put the former President over the line. If current polling were to hold true on election night, the results in Wisconsin and Michigan (which are currently practically tied) would prove decisive in deciding the winner.
